共享单车对大学生出行方式的影响(任务书,开题报告,论文18000字)
摘 要
自从2015年6月，北大推出了“OFO”共享单车。其目标是针对于大学校园内的单车出行方式依赖，在这过去的3年里，越来越多的共享单车品牌来到了我们大学生的身边，大学生智能手机的普及和其功能的日益齐全以及大学生绿色出行的价值观深入人心，大学生选择共享单车作为自己的出行方式已是必然的趋势。伴随着“OFO”、“摩拜”、“Hellobike”等单车品牌进入大学校园，共享单车出行成为大学校园内出行的重要出行工具。越来越多的大学生把骑行共享单车作为了一种新的出行常态。
共享单车已经成为了大学生新的一种出行方式，它对于原有的交通出行方式有一定的改变以及影响，本文针对于共享单车以及和其他不同的原有交通出行方式进行对比，首先对大学生出行选择机理进行了分析，以实地调查和网上问卷为基础，分析了出行方式影响因素之后，利用行为心理学、行为决策理论、前景理论等理论基础，建立了决策模型，通过计算的方式，得到了在不同的里程下，出行者会如何进行出行方式的决策。
研究结果表明了在0到3公里内，大学生出行者会更多的选择共享单车出行来替代、徒步、公交和出租车出行；3到5公里内，大学生的选择会更多，共享单车与公交车和出租车相比，优势不明显；在5公里以上共享单车与徒步出行往往不具备优势，被公交出行和出租车出行所取代。该研究作为基础研究可为共享单车投放规模、基站选址、定价标准提供基础理论支持；作为公共交通的一种接驳方式，本文研究可以为公共交通站点空间规划有一定价值，对于提升公交服务质量、运营效率有很大的意义。
关键词：共享单车；大学生；出行方式选择；前景理论；出行选择机理
Abstract
Since June 2015, Peking University has launched "OFO" bike sharing plan. The goal is to increase the use of bicycles on college campuses. In the past three years, a growing number of Shared bicycle brand came to our college students, college students complete the popularity of smartphones and its function of increasingly and deeply rooted in the values of college students' green travel, college students choose Shared cycling as a way to travel is the inevitable trend. Along with "OFO", "Mobike", "Hellobike" and other bicycle brands entering the university campus, bike sharing has become an important tool for university campus travel. More and more college students take cycling and sharing bicycles as a new normal for traveling.
Shared cycling has become the new college students a way of travel, it for the original transportation method has certain change and influence, in this paper to Shared cycling and the original transportation and other different ways, first on college students' travel choice mechanism is analyzed, on the basis of field investigation and online questionnaire, analyzes the factor influencing the way to travel, use of behavior psychology, behavioral decision theory, prospect theory, such as theoretical basis, decision-making model is established, through the way of calculation, obtained under different mileage, travelers will be how to carry out the way to travel decisions. The results show that the sharing of bicycles in short distance travel can completely replace the original hiking and bus travel.
The results showed that college students who traveled within 0 to 3 kilometers were more likely to choose to travel by bike instead of by foot, bus and taxi. Within 3 to 5 kilometers, college students will have more choices, and the advantages of sharing bicycles are not obvious compared with buses and taxis.Sharing bikes and hiking over 5km often has no advantage and is replaced by bus and taxi trips.As a basic research, this research can provide basic theoretical support for the scale of bike sharing, site selection and pricing standard. As a way of connecting public transportation, the study in this paper can be of certain value for the space planning of public transportation stations, which is of great significance for improving the quality of bus service and operating efficiency.
Key words: Sharing bicycles;College students;Choice of travel mode; Prospect theory; Travel selection mechanism
目录
第1章 绪论 1
1.1选题的背景和研究意义 1
1.2 国内外现状研究 1
1.2.1国内外对于共享单车的部署研究 1
1.2.2共享单车大学校园内现状研究 2
1.2.3个人出行选择机理分析 2
1.2.4出行行为模型的建立与数据处理 3
1.2.5国内外文献评价 4
1.3基本内容 4
1.4技术路线 6
1.5进度安排 7
第2章 大学生出行方式选择机理分析 8
2.1 大学生出行方式选择特性分析 8
2.1.1 大学生出行过程 8
2.1.2 大学生出行特点 8
2.2大学生出行方式选择影响因素分析 9
2.2.1出行者个人属性 10
2.2.2 交通工具属性 10
2.2.3 出行特性 11
2.3 本章小结 12
第3章 出行方式选择机理分析 13
3.1行为心理学 13
3.2 行为决策理论 13
3.2.1 行为决策理论的定义 13
3.2.2决策影响因素分析 13
3.3前景理论 14
3.3.1前景理论以及相关定义 14
3.4 前景理论的适用性 16
3.5 前景理论构建模型的流程分析图 17
3.6 本章小结 18
第4章 共享单车对大学生出行方式选择的影响分析 19
4.1大学生出行方式概况 19
4.1.1 徒步出行 19
4.1.2公交出行 19
4.1.3 共享单车出行 19
4.1.4 出租车出行 20
4.2决策指标 20
4.3 前景值计算 21
4.4 前景值计算结果与验证 32
4.4.1 出行方式选择概率 32
4.4.2 结果对比分析 33
4.5本章小结 34
第5章 结论与展望 35
5.1主要研究结论 35
5.2研究展望 36
参考文献 37
致谢 39 |
