财政支付弥补我国养老金缺口问题的研究(硕士)(论文25000字)
摘要
进入新世纪以来，随着我国上个世纪五十年代的婴儿潮所诞生的人逐渐步入了老年人的行列。所谓人口老龄化，是指60岁或65岁以上的人口在总人口中所占比例不断上升的过程。联合国教科文组织规定，一个国家或地区60岁以上的人口占该国家或地区人口总数10%以上，或65岁以上的人口占该国家或地区人口总数的7%以上，那么该国家或地区就进入了老龄化社会。而中国早在1999年己成为老年型国家，并进入老年型社会。按照这一标准我国目前类似于上海、北京、广州等许多沿海的发达地区和城市都已经在逐步向着老龄化城市所迈进，并且随着时间的推移预计到2040年，我国的人口老龄问题化会更加严重。
因而在全球人口老龄化趋势日益加剧的背景下，养老金缺口已成为一个世界性难题。逐年扩大的资金缺口已使现行养老保险制度面临严重的财务危机。随着中国养老保险体制改革的进一步深化和公共财政体系的逐步建立与完善，面对日益严重的养老金缺口问题，笔者认为，应当以财政支付补充养老金缺口，彻底解决我国的养老金缺口问题。本文试图从财政支付补充养老金缺口的理论依据与实证分析为养老金缺口的解决提供具体方案。
养老金缺口问题涉及较多学科，财政支付能力的理论分析和实际资料涉及理论较多，因此，本文综合运用宏微观经济学、新制度经济学、计量经济学、财政学、劳动经济学、统计学、人口学以及保险精算学中的相关理论对中国养老金缺口的财政支付能力进行了理论层面的研究。同时，运用了理论分析与实证分析相结合，以定量分析为主，定量分析和定性分析相结合的方法，突出强调西方经济理论与中国现实状况的有机结合，对调整财政支出结构弥补养老金缺口、多渠道筹集养老金和健全与完善多层次的养老保险计划等策略进行了研究。
全文在理论框架上，从公共财政与养老保险的内在联系出发，从财政支付能力的角度运用实证研究和规范分析相结合的方法对养老保险制度改革中出现的养老金缺口的问题进行了研究，得出通过调整财政支出结构和运用企业年金制度等措施可以解决未来时期养老金缺口的结论。由于本人理论修养和实际调查能力的限制，在引用数据以及分析数据之时可能会出现不全面不深刻的情况。
关键词：人口老龄化；养老金缺口；财政支付手段；公共财政；养老保险
Abstract
Since has entered the new century, the century 50's baby booms is born the human along with our country in to march into gradually senior citizen's ranks.The so-called population aging, is refers to 60 years old of or 65 year old of above populations occupies the process in the total population which the proportion rises unceasingly. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization stipulated that, a country either the local 60 year old of above population occupy this national or the area gross population above 10%, either 65 year old of above population occupies this national or above area gross population 7%, then this country or the area entered the aging society. But China as early as oneself became the old age country in 1999, and entered the old age society. That is similar at present according to this standard our country to Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and so on many coastal developed areas and the city all already gradually is turning towards the aging city to make great strides forward, and along with the time passage estimated to 2040, our country's population problems of the aged could be more serious.
The global trend toward an aging population growing in the background, the pension gap has become a global challenge. Gradually increase the funding gap has been the existing pension system has faced serious financial crisis. As a result of China's reform of its pension system to further deepen and the public financial system of the step-by-step establishment and perfection, and faced with the increasing severity of the pension gap, the author is of the opinion that it should be in the form of financial payment supplementary pension gap, with a view to resolving the pension gap. This paper attempts to from the financial pay supplementary pension gap of the theoretical basis and empirical analysis of pension gap solutions provide specific programs.
The pension gap question involves multily-disciplinary, the financial payment ability theoretical analysis and the actual material involve the theory to be many, therefore, this article synthesis utilized in the great microeconomics, the new system economic, the econometrics, the finance, the labor economics, statistics, the demography as well as the insurance actuarial science correlation theories has conducted the theory stratification plane research to the Chinese pension gap financial payment ability.At the same time, has utilized the theoretical analysis and the real diagnosis analysis unifies, by the quantitative analysis primarily, the method which the quantitative analysis and the qualitative analysis unify, emphasized prominently the Western economic theory and the Chinese realistic condition organic synthesis, to adjusted the expenditure structure atonement pension gap, the multi-channel collection pension and perfect and strategies and so on perfect multi-level old-age insurance plan has conducted the research.
Full text of the theoretical framework, from the Public Finance and intrinsically linked endowment insurance, and from the perspective of the financial ability to pay empirical research and normative analysis using a combination of methods for pension reform pension gap appears in the issue has been studied, obtained by adjusting the structure of fiscal expenditure and the use of enterprise annuity system and other measures to solve the pension gap in future periods conclusions. As I survey theoretical training and practical capacity constraints, and analyze the data in the reference data may occur when the situation is not fully profound.
关键词：The aging of the population； pension gap； fiscal payment； public finance； endowment insurance
目 录
第1章引言 1
1.1选题背景与研究意义 1
1.2研究文献综述 1
1.2.1国内外学者对于养老保险制度的研究 1
1.2.2国内外学者对于养老金缺口问题的研究 2
1.3 研究方法与研究思路 3
1.4创新与不足之处 3
第2章 我国养老金缺口的形成原因及现状综述 4
2.1我国养老金缺口的形成原因 4
2.1.1人口老龄化的概念与内涵 4
2.1.2人口老龄化越来越严重 4
2.1.3养老金制度存在一系列问题 6
2.1.4养老金管理意识不强 6
2.1.5养老金面临隐性养老金债务问题 7
2.2我国养老金缺口的现状 7
2.3专家学者对养老金缺口问题提出的对策和建议 7
2.3.1延迟退休 7
2.3.2增加个人缴费比例 8
2.3.3实施政府兜底政策 8
2.3.4投资金融市场 8
第3章 公共财政负担养老金的理论分析 9
3.1公共财政中的养老保险支出理论 9
3.1.1公共财政养老保险支出责任的界定 9
3.1.2数量的界定 10
3.1.3费率的界定 11
3.2养老保险经济学基础理论 13
3.2.1养老保险对经济影响的分析 13
3.2.2影响养老保险的经济因素分析 15
3.2.3经济增长有益于养老保险成本降低的分析 16
第四章 养老金缺口财政支付的实证分析 17
4.1 财政收支状况 17
4.2 财政负担养老金缺口现状 17
4.2.1 财政养老保险资金收支基本状况 18
4.2.2 养老金缺口现状 18
4.3 财政负担养老金缺口状况预测 19
4.4 财政支出结构调整中的养老金缺口支付能力 19
4.4.1 中国目前财政支出结构中存在问题 19
4.4.2调整支出结构解决养老金缺口的可行性 20
4.4.3 调整支出结构增强养老金缺口支付能力 20
4.5利用财政手段解决养老金缺口方案设计 21
4.5.1 方案一 21
4.5.1 方案二 22
第五章 中国解决养老金缺口的策略选择 24
5.1 调整财政支出结构弥补养老金缺口 24
5.1.1 规范公共财政支出范围 24
5.1.2 调整财政支出结构方向 24
5.2 多渠道筹集养老金 25
5.2.1国家财政支出 26
5.2.2国有资产收益分配来弥补 26
5.3健全与完善多层次的养老保险计划 27
研究结论 30 |
